5 million MS Kinect devices by Christmas?

I’ve seen this article and banter all over the place that Microsoft fully anticipates they will sell 5 million Kinect units for Christmas. Let’s just map this out. With roughly 50 days until Christmas, Microsoft expects to sell nearly 100,000 units every day. That is a pretty bold claim. First off I just don’t see that many Xbox users running out and buying this thing. As I’ve said before, it’s a kid’s toy and for the most part pretty damn useless. Neat technology, but seriously, it’s not that big a deal. I just don’t see MS hitting anywhere near those sales figure.

But I also believe this is a pure numbers game. In a fantasy world Microsoft may sell 5 million units, but it’s not like that many people will actually have them in their homes on the day. I don’t see MS having that much stock just sitting at the ready in a warehouse. And if BestBuy takes a million units to have on display in every story they have across the planet is Microsoft going to count those are part of their 5 million sales?

These figures also show that Microsoft feels they’re the only Christmas idea this year. To hell with the idea of a Google Netbook, or laptops or desktops or iPhone4 or iPod Touch or the iPad or even the WP7. And if other tablets actually hit the market, what about those? What about the Kindle? Microsoft keeps acting like people have absolutely nothing else to do but wait to spend their money on a single MS product. There are dozens of high dollar products coming out, I hardly think too many people are going to be thinking about the Kinect.